#Election2016. Donald Trump is now going to be our 45th president of the United States. So what does Trump’s new presidency mean for real estate investors? We will take a further look at some key aspects such as overall market economics and tax proposals. According to Northern Trust the combination of the Republican wins in the White House, House of Representatives and Senate bodes well for tax reform, including the potential for repeal of the 3.8% net investment income tax and even the possible repeal of the gift, estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes. Here is Northern Trust’s list of key stats:
Trump and Tax Revenue
– The Republican sweep is expected to materially impact the work of the Department of Treasury in rewriting the pending proposed regulations regarding the gift and estate tax valuation of family controlled business entities.
– Estimates of the revenue reductions associated with the Republican tax proposals vary widely.
– But the realities of persistent underemployment of workers who entered the workforce or were displaced during the Great Recession, and the health and Social Security benefit costs of our aging population will continue to drive demand for tax revenue.
Overall Market Economics for Investors
– Defying the betting odds and pollster predictions, Donald Trump has pulled off an improbable victory.
– Trump will enter the White House with an extremely low approval rating, and with a populace battered and bruised from a divisive campaign.
– Although the Republicans hold the majority in Congress, Trump will need to build broad support from his party in order to govern effectively.
– Trump’s presidency also brings an additional layer of risk, at least over both the near and intermediate terms: that of general policy uncertainty. He truly represents the “unknown unknown.”
– Global capital market reaction has been swift. Equity, fixed income and currency markets are displaying a definitive “risk off” sentiment, reflecting deep concerns with Trump’s stated policies.
– Similar to the post-Brexit market behavior, global risk assets are selling off, although bouncing from the extraordinarily depressed overnight levels.
– It is important for investors to remember that the post-Brexit market reaction was short lived and the markets may swiftly regain equilibrium from this post-election response as well.
– The populist message of this election is clear, and President-elect Trump and Congress will have to find some common ground to address the issues the election illuminated. This will take time.
For investors, Northern Trust advises to keep calm and carry on. “Looking at history, we see little correlation between who sits in the White House and equity market returns. We do, however, recognize that this result is decidedly out of consensus and unexpected. We urge investors to keep a focus on the long term and avoid the urge to react to short-term news.”